Sunk Cost Fallacy

Another way of explaining Sunk Cost Fallacy, is to use the old saying  ‘ throwing good money after bad ‘.

Once you have invested a lot of time and money into a project or venture, then you are less likely to abandon the project or venture.

An example of this might be someone who starts a business making Chocolate Fireguards.

Whilst the novelty and absurdity of such a product might catch the public and possibly media’s attention initially, long term the venture is unlikely to make enough sales*  to be viable.

 

*Unless you used web niche marketing to promote your product worldwide.  To help achieve this, advertising platforms such as Google Adwords, can help target your advertising message to your desired potential audience.

 

A possible antidote to sunk cost fallacy might be to do what is known at ‘pivot’. That is change the direction and aim of the business to try and improve profitability and sales.

An example of this approach might be a dealer of two-way radio equipment (Walkie Talkies etc).  Due to the introduction of affordable mobile phones, many businesses switched in the early 1990s to mobile phones instead.

The two-way radio dealer was faced with a declining market for their products and services, which could mean having to reduce staff and other costs.

To avoid a situation where their business starts losing money in a declining market, they could pivot into a new growing market.

In the case of the early 1990s two-way radio dealer, the obvious choice would be to become a dealer of mobile phone technology.

The business is still working in the radio communications industry, as mobile phones and walkie talkies both use radio waves for communication.

Importantly, they are now in an expanding market, and therefore can avoid sunk cost fallacy, by continuing investing money in a declining business.

Finally it should be noted that the two-way radio industry actually made a comeback in the late 1990s due to deregulation of licencing, such as PMR 446. This encouraged an increase in sales and competition.

Confirmation Bias

Confirmation Bias & Marketing Consequences

Once humans have made a decision, they find it uncomfortable and difficult to change their minds.

Brexit is a good example. You only have to look at twitter to realise that whether you voted Leave or Remain, you probably are following other people with referendum views which closely mirror you own.

Don’t believe me?

Then go onto twitter and search out a Leave supporter (or Remain supporter), and take a look at who they are following, and what tweets they have liked or commented on.

Generally speaking you will see that they are confirming their voting choice was, in their minds at least, the correct decision.

Whilst ‘Confirmation Bias’ may be what most people do, it is in my opinion a valuable skill to be able to see opposing sides perspectives, and be open to a possible change of opinion, if convincing evidence is put forward to support a change.

This is obviously a hard thing for humans to do.

@acraigmiles

 

Walkie Talkie on Grass Lawn advert effectiveness examination

As a small business owner, who loves marketing I often design our own advert publicity material.

The Photo advert of the Walkie Talkie on a grass lawn was taken by me using a Nikon D3300 Digital SLR Camera.

So why did I think it was a good idea to put a walkie talkie on a grass lawn?

Walkie talkies are used in a variety of environments, from inside shops to rescue workers up mountains.

The marketing message that I am trying to convey, is that the walkie talkie in the photo, is a rugged product.

It is also (hopefully) clear that the item is available for sale, and that the price is clearly stated.

An improvement to the advert would be to put the name of the website and / or contact phone number on the advert.

As it stands, the potential customer has to google the name of the company, which they probably won’t, as its hassle.

Yet another improvement to the advert would be to include text explaining the benefits of the product to the potential consumer.

Transformers – The Different Types of Electrical Transformers

Transformers

The Different Types of Transformers

Transformers – Step Up, Step Down, Single Phase, Three Phase

Transformers either ‘step up’ or ‘step down’ AC voltage. They do do by magnetic induction.

Step Down types reduce the voltage coming out, compared to the voltage going in. These are the most common type.

Step Up types have a higher output voltage than an input voltage. These are used for example at power stations to boost up the voltage that is fed onto the pylons. Higher voltage reduces losses over distance. It is then reduced again as it approaches towns where the users are located.

There are both ‘Single Phase’ Transformers, and ‘Three phase’ Transformers.

Single Phase Transformers have one ‘Primary’ coil, and one ‘Secondary’ coil. The Alternating Current is fed into the Primary, and comes out of the Secondary.

Three Phase types have three Primary coil windings, and yes you guessed it correctly, three secondary (output) coil windings.

Transformers are available in a wide variety of voltage and current outputs, ranging from a few volts up to thousands of volts, for high voltage electricity distribution.

Are Transformers AC or DC?

Transformers work by electromagnetic induction.

To generate electricity you need to move a varying magnetic field within a coil of wire.

This can be done in two ways:-

Firstly you could get a coil of copper wire and move a magnet in and out of the coil, which would generate electricity.

As the magnetic would be moving in and out of the coil, the magnetic ‘field strength’ would be continually changing.

If a suitable meter was connected to each of the two ends of the coil wires, then it would be showing a variable voltage.

This variable voltage is AC.

The second way to generate Alternating Current is to substitute the moving magnet used in the first method, with an alternating voltage.

Transformers work by this method, and an Alternating Voltage is run through the first coil (known as the ‘Primary Winding’), which induces a (normally) different voltage in the second coil (known as the ‘Secondary Winding’).

By varying the ratio of coil windings between the Primary Winding and the Secondary Winding, you can alter the output voltage to the desired level.

The transformer output is usually fixed at the time of manufacture, though some transformers have ‘tapped windings’ which are physical connection at different points along the transformer winding, allowing different voltages to be selected.

Transformer Construction

Coming soon….

https://twitter.com/acraigmiles/status/78616228886461235

How to Reverse the Direction of a Three Phase Induction Motor

How to reverse the direction of a three-phase induction motor.

Reversing the direction of a three phase Induction Motor is useful in a number of situations.

For example in a electric winch or elvevator (lift), there is a requirement for the motor to reverse.

Swap any two of the three ‘phase’ connections around, to reverse induction motor direction.

To reverse a three phase induction motor, swap over any two of the three ‘phase’ connections in the motor terminal connection box.

Warning: Only attempt to do this if you have been trained, as over 400 volts is involved. Also obtain all necessary ‘Permit To Work’ documentation, and the locks and keys, for the isolator ‘lock off’.


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Phasing Out – Three Phase Induction Motors – on ships

Phasing out a Three Phase Induction motor, onboard ships (or on land)  is the process of identifying both ends of each of the three stator coils (3 phase motor).

What have Oranges got to do with Radios?

I once read an article by an educational research group that stated that students would retain facts better if two UNRELATED objects were put together in the picture.

Based on this article I decided to put fresh oranges in the background of an advert idea for a Walkie-Talkie company.

The advert has not yet been widely published, or compared against other adverts in the same media publications. Therefore objective comparisons cannot be made, or measured.

I will update this post if the advert gets used.

The use of the words “Grab a pear of these” was deliberately chosen, as the eyes see oranges, and not Pears.

Humans notice unusual things like this. Its an orange, not a pear.

Want proof of what I just said; then imagine a green elf walking down the high street. You would probably notice it, as its not the ‘norm’.

If I then asked you to name the make of car that just drove past 30 seconds ago with two children in, you might well struggle. This is because it is normal for cars to pass by with children inside.

Time is Money Advert

Time is money – This is an advert idea that I came up with entitled, ‘Time is Money’

The idea behind it, is that two-way-radio can save companies time, and as employees cost money for their time, by using two-way-radio, companies save money as well.

Insulation Resistance Tester

Insulation resistance tester is a piece of test equipment, used to test insulation resistance between connections.

One use of the tester is to test three-phase AC induction motor stators.

A stator in a three phase induction motor consists of three sets of tightly wound coils.

The coils are wound together and next to each other, and electrically separated by a layer of insulation on the copper wire.

Each copper winding has two ends.

As there are three sets of windings, that means there are six coil ends in total.

Each end is connected to form either a star or delta configuration.

For the induction motor to work, there needs to be a high level of electrical resistance between each of the three coils.

This is known as ‘insulation resistance’, and a tester is used to measure it.